FIFA-Linked Prediction Market Faces Scrutiny Over $108 Million in Suspicious Trading
A cryptocurrency-powered prediction market that partnered with FIFA during the 2026 World Cup is facing questions about the authenticity of its reported trading activity.
According to an investigation published by The Wall Street Journal on October 17, approximately $108 million of the $167 million in trades recorded on ADI Predictstreet through late September involved a network of closely connected cryptocurrency wallets.
The findings raise concerns about potentially inflated trading volumes and the reliability of activity reported by prediction market platforms.
What Did the Investigation Find?
The investigation, based on analysis by Harvard students and reviewed by cryptocurrency industry experts, identified 795 linked wallets involved in the suspicious trading patterns.
These wallets reportedly received funding from a central account that also collected trading fees generated on the platform.
Researchers found patterns consistent with circular trading, where funds move between connected accounts, creating the appearance of substantial market activity without necessarily representing independent demand.
The flagged $108 million represents approximately 65% of the reported $167 million trading volume.
However, these findings do not establish that every transaction was fraudulent or that the platform deliberately manipulated trading figures.
What Is ADI Predictstreet?
ADI Predictstreet is a blockchain-based prediction market that allows users to forecast outcomes of real-world events, including sporting competitions.
In April 2026, FIFA officially announced a multi-year partnership, making ADI Predictstreet its first official prediction market partner.
The platform was promoted during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, introducing prediction markets to football audiences worldwide.
Its technology operates within the ADI Chain ecosystem, which promotes blockchain infrastructure for financial and consumer applications.
How Has ADI Predictstreet Responded?
ADI Predictstreet has disputed aspects of the investigation’s findings.
Meanwhile, Gibraltar’s gambling regulator, which licenses the platform, has indicated that the company complies with applicable regulatory requirements and that its review identified no consumer harm, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The regulator’s position does not necessarily resolve questions about how the reported trading volume was generated.
Earlier reporting also raised questions about the platform’s commercial relationships and operating structure.
Why Does Circular Trading Matter?
Trading volume is an important measure of activity on cryptocurrency exchanges and prediction markets.
Investors and users often interpret high volumes as evidence of strong participation and liquidity.
However, when connected accounts repeatedly trade with one another, reported volumes can become misleading.
For prediction markets, this is especially important because market prices are frequently interpreted as probabilities of future events.
If trading activity is concentrated among related participants, those prices may not accurately reflect broader public expectations.
